Friends,
Since notification in Feb 06 , some 22 SEZs are up and running , collectively they could expect Rs33K crs worth of goods in 06-07 , roughly 6% of India’s total exports . This information silences SEZ critics, me included, to some extent . Fifty thousand people have got employment too.
Chinese govt. is imparting training to toy manufacturing people to improve quality , as there were many recalls of defective toys lately.
Indian realty companies want to foray in to the world market due to better margins , easy compliance and help of modern equipments.
There are five times more PHDs in America who are of Indian origin than in India itself. Corporates should be offering liberal scholarships for doing reserch work to Indian students locally which will be to their own advantage later. It is a pity that since C V Raman , no other Indian has got nobel prizefor science ie since 1930.
Worlds wheat stocks may drop to 25 year low by July-June season end in07-08 . This is reported by FAO of UN. Per capita consumption of wheat is 70kg annualy.
In todays times why should there be broking houses to process orders. It should covert in to the direct order putting mechanism for the institutional investors at least as in very many cases brokers’ staff takes advantage by front running . This is a big menace and to curb it in India is to cry for moon. Our moral standards are not like Swiss bankers where secrecy of client account is paramount.
I declare that the market is not sustainable at current level over the next one and half years at least. This is out come of study of certain trends and macro economic ratios. Should there be fresh developments , the equation may change but it also seems unlikely that the changes of this nature may happen. I am not putting forth the whole analogy due to constraint of time and space.
Sugar and Aluminium are lower than an year earlier and Gold and Wheat are well over last years prices , is there any connection in the colour of commodity and the stars. Silver and Cotton have also performed poorly and happen to be white in colour like Silver and Aluminium. In India atrologers do advice clients about the next years movement in commodities according to colour.
Money supply (M3) as on 14/09/07 stands at Rs. 494953 Crs (+20.4%) and yet the inflation is not out of hands. This is a great display of strength of economy.
My advice to investors and to my readers in particular is that they should think nothing much of SEBIs’ new guidelines for FII and other matters concerning the money inflow or interst rates ect. They should simply keep an eye on the ‘panch-tattva’ points that I give after every quarterly results for bigger companies. This takes care of the most of the things in to consideration and hence is scientifically based.
PNs are issued by FIIs and have properties of derivative instruments but without exactly in proportion to underlying securities with FIIs . Thes are preferred by hedge funds who have leveraged trading ideas and are mostly responcible triggered drops and rises in Indian markets due to smallness of market. FIIs have to restrict the PN issue to 40% of their investment and further, they will be required to issue PNs in proportion to underlying securities held. The longer term derivative instruments will be launched in India too , to take care of the needs of hedge funds which will be registering directly here. SEBI is contemplating to ease the registeration process for their comfort.
IMF opines that the dollar is still overvalued against EURO .
Bhutto, the Benazir, returns to Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif hpwever was returned back earlier when he landed in Pak last month.
Coke logged in 21% growth in Sept qtr of 2007 over a year before.
The SEBI related developments were the trigger to see markets down badly although this regulatory amendment was on cards and did not come as a complete surprise. The reactions in market have very strange charactistics and therefore it has been advised by seasons players that one to one relation does not exist in stock markets and some currents underneath the surface have to be studied in terms of symptoms for arriving at a better judgement about the markets.
Reddy of RBI said in NY that ‘large changes in liquidity are abscuring assessment of risks’. I think tht this is what is the main thing that RBI may keep a watch on , leave the interest rate matters as per the demand and supply of credit in market. The CRR is a tool in its hands to be regulating liquidity but ther should be a pre-announced scale of CRR based quantum of liquidity in market and not on whimsical pleasure at the time of quarterly review . For the ensueing quarters if the scale itself requires mending CRR . should the mending be done. This shock absorber would make India a nation of stable policies and would see dollar inflow related currency shocks to be moderated considerably. The price index would be taken care automatically. If the govt. does not resort to note printing to cover budgetary deficites nothing untoward on the price front may happen.
HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal
