panch-tattva/post result…EICHERMOT

EICHERMOT @482 (221007) gets 919 panch-tattva points and may bought on declines only and disinvested if in stock.

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva/post result…HCLINSYS,SONATSOFTW

HCLINSYS @ 221 (221007) gets 1102 panch-tattva points and may be bought and bought on declines Keep in mind to book profits along the way.

SONATSOFTW @44 (221007) gets 939 panch-tattva points and may be bought on declines by those who have track of company or may keep track.

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

Panch-tattva/post result…ORIENTPPR

ORIENTPPR @537 (221007) gets 1325 panch-tattva points and may be bought and bought on declines and booked profits on part qty.

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

Panch-tattva talk

Friends,

Robert Shiller , an economist with Yale University, developed some thing called ‘cyclically adjusted PEs’(his books name is ‘Irrational Exuberance’) which foretold the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 in USA with reverberation back in India. The method applied to 1929 gave the same conclusion when the whole world faced a bad sort of recession for some years. Not aware of the Shiller theory , I had too predicted the fall and continuous fall in share prices of IT sector companies in 1999-2000. It so happened that more than 70% values were lost by 2003. I had concluded in 2000 that the market cap of Infosys Technology that time was enough to buy the whole stock of residential accomodation at the then prevaialing rates in Mumbai, which seemed to me a very far fetched valueation for a company as young as Infosys Technology and with as little investment actually made as was done by Infosys Tech. till then.  I had been harping on the high PE tune but with less of conviction due the enormity of IT scope and the growth rate of the company but this too always remained at the back of mind. At that stage I even invited redicule of friends and other market participents but the mental calculation about the economic and other scene were not allowing me to moderate my statement about the impending disaster for the IT sector investors. Things are pretty much the same way in India in respect of host of sectors today , namely, Housing and Construction, Infrastructure, OIl and Gas,Cap. Goods, Metals, Banks and the PSUs. I have again stuck my neck out to say that the markets would have to pass through 18 to 30 month period without giving returns, at least not as much as would be earned by way interest on the equivalent investment and then only the base would be ready for the next jump of the Nifty to cross the magic 10000 mark in a swift manner, provided of course the economic world order is not altered in a very material way (this will have to kept a watch on).

Please excuse me for the strong openion which may unnerve the ordinery investor but I hope this works as a warning signal too and save their skin , if not the pant and shirt. I may clerify this has been said not entirely as a hunch but has a solid basis and complex caculation also at the back of it. The flavour of which will be found in my ‘panch-theory’ based stock specific analysis.

HariOm,

krsnakhandelwal