panch-tattva talk… TM to raise funds

Friends,

 

TATAMOTORS has decided to raise Rs 7200 crs for funding the JLR aquisition. It will be diluting the present equity and will be offered as rights in three types of instruments. It is step in right direction for it will safeguared the future of Tata Motors on one hand and since the JLR bisiness will be a seperate business owned by Tata Motors , the fruits will be all for TMs and without the liability beyond the initial contribution that too from the freshly raised equity. Needless to say that the TM will have tax saving on the interest out go till the conversion of debentures in to equity.

 

L&T has posted good results for the last quarter ended March 08. The topline growth assures that the infrastructure spending is growing whatevr the impressions be.

 

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva talk…oil matters

Friends,

 

The govt. is readying for the petrol price hike . It seems the guardians have decided to kiss the K.I.S.S principle at the end of the day.

 

It is however a  pity that the no firm pricing policy is being contemplated and the concerned people remain guessing as to what would be done , when and if . The oil rpices will keep moving down and up and to keep the businesses and the public on the tenterhooks is a bad idea. I have some advice to offer regarding this with atmost simplicity and convenience. The retail prices may be increased by 1% per month so long as there is under-recovery and may be reduced when there is excess recovery at the same rate ie 1% per month on so long as there is no excess recovry. This will make the impact of oil prices moderated .The users, refiners and marketers may in light of this policy take the necessary steps at their end to remain comfortable. Would the spoilt geniuses in power would this , is the real question.

 

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva contest…predict nifty closing

Friends,

You are all invited to participate in the contest of predicting nifty closing on the 30th May 08 by posting your anticipated level of closing before 1500 hrs (IST) . The closest entry to the actual closing will entitle you to win a  reward of Rs. 1000 worth of gift voucher for purchase of jewelery item from ‘Tanishq’. You have to just mention your nifty closing expectation in the comment box of this entry .Please note that only one entry per person will be allowed. Our decision will be final and no disputes will entertained.You will however be able to see the various entries yourself by looking in the comments box.

 

N.B.Please mention your e-mail address , to enable me to inform the winning party. The gift voucher will be sent at the given address within seven days.

 

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal
 

panch-tattva/post result…lt,sbin,ntpc&hindpetro

LT @2888 (290508) gets 818 panch-tattva points and youmay buy it or only long term and on days of declines over time.

 

SBIN @1468 (290508) gets 964 panch-tattva points and you buy it over time for long term in a few strokes and book profits on half quantity whenever possible.

 

NTPC @172 (290508) gets 1010 panch-tatva points and it safe to buy for long term and is good to buy,so you may buy it right away.

 

HINDPETRO @248 (290508) gets 930 panch-tattva points and you may buy it moderately for long term.

 

P.S. You get professional recommendation for scrips of your choice for a charge , please refer to ‘the new scheme’ catagory for details.

panch-tattva/post result…m&m

M&M @641 (280508) gets 1085 panch-tattva points and it may be bought for medium term,but you may partly book profits till next result announcement.

 

IOC @425 (280508) gets 1040 panch-tattva points and this should be bought for long term and the opportunity to book profits should be honoured by selling part quantity .

 

P.S. You may see the applicable charges in ‘the new schemes ‘ which have been revised wef 1st June 08.

panch-tattva talk…costly oil…

Friends,

 

The oil barrel traded for the high f $135/bbl and has given up some gains today settling at $130/bbl. The world stock markets became unnerved for the rise in oil. There is however an other side to it. The oil got to  become a prized commodity on back of the mass car production made possible by the assembly lines. The future developments made the engines efficient and more number of cars could be run for the same quantity oil and it was a relief. Then came time when the car became a commoners means of commuting in countries like China and India too and oil started boiling. Not to be left behind the Aeroplane manufacturing was made much more cost efficient with the computer aided design and manufacture , also through increase in the numbers produced (economies of scale of production). The air tarvel became affordable to all and sundry. The oil had further push in terms of relative pricing and importance. The plastics became popular and required oil for its production and the need to grow more food by use of fertilisers made demand for oil jump up. On top of it the oil producing countries organised themselves and the supply of oil became conntrolled. The oil is selling at such high prices is no wonder.

 

The mother earth had the environmental discomfort on account of excessive use of petroleum products. No body paid heed for growth of economies could not be curbed. The extremes are corrected through the extreme on the other side. This is what is happening. But is there a cause of worry. I think not.

 

Back in India our govt. is contemplating imposing a cess on income tax to cover part of losses in oil under-recoveries. I think the K.I.S.S. principle is not appicable to them, they could have straight away made oil pricing free, ensuring more restrained use of oil in more rational ways. There should be higher tax on big cars and SUVs. there should be stress on harnessing solar enrgy. There should be a greater effort in the area of mass transportation and rationalised city planning.  The solar power should be harnessed as an alternative to oil. There are many ways and means to curb the petroleum use.

 

The USA has set an example. The Road Miles travelled in USA were down by 4.3% in the month of March 08. The sales of oil guzzeling SUVs is down. The used SUV prices are down 17.5% there. Fuel expenditure as a portion of household budgets is as much high as in late seventies. The oil price rise in pinching as there no commensurate increase in incomes. But the free pricing mechanism back in USA will take care of the high oil price.

 

 We in India are in fact subsidising the cost of oil and allowing its unrestrained use. Stange are ways here. We are invinting problem rather putting it off. Have not the economies of the world advanced along with the rise in oil prices so far. Travel at drop of hat is bad and should be curbed. OIl never was an essetial element for man kind in distant past , it may not be all that important in distant future. The only thing is that alternative sources of energy have to be developed, the reserch in this direction should be intensive. How far the world’s future may be clubbed with some thing which has only a limited supply and that too in the hands of few countries.

 

So, lets forget oil and concentrate on the task at hand. Distortions in the economy should be avoided but our leaders have a different agenda.

 

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

charges revised wef 1st june

Friends,

 

You may have now become conversent with the ‘panch-tattva’ based recommendations for investment and trading.I have been covering very many scrips and the recommendation is given free of charge to all through this site.

There may be some scrip of your interest which you want to be exclusively studied for you. It can be done for payment of Rs 1000 per scrip and you will get guidance after every quarterly result and also when needed.

I may be contacted at +919724313034/+919376168780.My E-mail addresse are krsnakhandelwal@yahoo.com. p> 

 

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva/post result…bhel

BHEL @1655 (260508) gets 886 panch-tattva points and this stock shoul be picked up over time for long term, mostly on down days.

panch-tattva talk…nifty falls

Friends,

 

The Nifty has fallen for the third consecutive day and in a big way. This has come back of the world markets behaving poorly on friday and also today (closing at 4885 ). The US markets would remain closed today but the IT scrips have gone up substantially today after opening lower. This conveys a fact that Indian companies which have global operations and have reasonably good scope of continued business growth would remain darling of the western investors. It is because the interest rates suffered for carrying investment is lower for them than for investors in India. Since the rupee has weakened more sectors will be looked at the investors abroad , again for the simple reason that while we may find the PE of 20 rather on the high side , it will be just a most comfortable level of discounting who can borrow internationally at around 5% p.a. interest.

 

Precisely for the reason given above the Indian markets are falling by a lesser degree than veru many other emerging markets. The fly in the ointment is the govt’s topsy tervy policies and the elections ahead. However, the elctions would be a cause of monetary expansion too as has been seen in the past. This happens due to govt’s spending as well as the expenditure by the parties and big polititians. Favours do not come for free in India too as in USA. There they have organised mechanism towards funding for elections , here we have Indian ways. There was a report that money flowed like water in Karnataka’s recent elections and big catches of money fell in hands of officers’ of Election Commission.

 

The oil is spoiling the party but a serious investor has to weather such things which loose importance over time. I would just ask a question that when the metal prices have gone up by two to three times , why should it matter that the oil is higher too. The relative pricing remains the same. Further , there is good elasticity in demand for the oil. Of course on e should be cautious in selecting the sectors . The sectors like auto-sector should be shunned for the time being. Telecom , basic infrastructure, pharma, It, Tech, cement, steel , entertainment and banking sould not have to suffer for oil related worries . Domestic oil sector companies are victims of govt’s policies and have a tremendous potential to deliver profits. The realy sector may loose further ground for it has a lot of stock to offer to buyers who by the way now have an option to conveniently invest in stocks which have become pretty reasonable in price terms. The stocks have been taken to be the best safe-guard agaisnt inflation and history of investment returns and values endorses it. Why then the investor should be behaving irrationally and shunning stocks. The answer lies in the emotional make up of the collective psyche of investor class.

 

The RBI saw reason and did not go for revision of the bench mark rates. This is a good sign. Should the inflation come down there would be down ward revision only. Supposing this does not happen then the world money would have reason to flow towards India.  Where would it get parked, you may yourself make out.

 

In the end I would say that it is such time that requires some active participation  and a foohardy attitude. Even if you suffer some notional losses on your investment , it will be rewarding you very handsomely at some time in near furute itself.

 

All this , ofcourse , is subject to monitoring the future direction of economy in India ( not the market) . If stays on path as it is presently doing , there is no if and but.

 

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva talk…karnataka goes bjp way

Friends,

 

Karnataka Assenbly Election results have just been announced and the BJP has secured slightly less than the half way figure of 112 . Since others have got close to 10 seats and the Congress and JD will not be having comfortable strength to form the govt. ,in all probability they would not stake claim also to it ( they have not had a pre-poll alliance and hence are not that much charged). As for BJP , the going has been too good considering it has greatly improved upon its last tally in Karnataka on one hand and on the other it has shattered the long held belief that BJP would remain a north based party. Its chief ministerial candidate comes from rural back ground and therefore this also makes it a party not only of unbanites but also of farmers and villagers. These are two most important developments that will see BJP coming to power with greater conviction at the centre next time. it will also command a better respect of its NDA partners.

 

What are the factors that have made this outcome possible, I list out some of them as I perceive them without insisting too much should others have differing idea:

 

Firstly, the people in Karnataka have seen the pseudo side of govt. at centre under comgress leadership which is hell bent not to raise the petro prices inspite of the surge in international prices and neither lowering duties on petroleum . People have seen it as a destabilising factor for the future of Indian economy as some body will have to pay some time unduly if it is not done judiciously. How far would the marketing companies will bear the burden and for whom , the lower classes do not enjoy the luxury of using petrol or diesel.

 

Secondly, the govts’ concern for inflation has been seen as a prank this time as it is not due to local factors and can not be wished away . The ministers how ever under its pretext givne a signal that when opportune they will punish industry or pressurise whether inline with law of land or not. If duties can be tempered with in case of steel and cement to bring down the prices why not in case of petroleum products. The rise in food prices are making farming some what more advatageous and the urban people have had good salary hikes to withstand inflation.

 

Thirdly, the Congress has been seen as powerless at dealing with left. It has put on back burner many a reforms on account of left’s unreasonable demands. Why should then it get votes.

 

Fourthly, the Jaipur blasts just before the polling have convinced people that the Congress was wrong in diluting terrerist related laws.

 

Fifthly, the farm loan waiver was not done with a proper mechanism in place to help the really affected farmers. The tricky would have greater advantage and not the honest.

 

Sixthly, the denial to Kalam saheb another term in the high office also has left bad taste in mouth.

 

Lastly, the JD was punished as it played its political roles in a dirty manner. The people also have developed a mood to vote decisively.

 

Now battle lines for the next general elections will be drawn and every passing day the Congress will have to answer for why its ministers are not working in tendum , why the PM does not have full authority over governance, why Soniaji wants to control power without direct responcibility.

 

HariOm,

krsnaKhandelwal