Friends,
The FY08 is over and the results from companies for the whole year or the mid year quarter,as the case be, have been out for most companies. Some companies who intend to declare only the audited results have yet not announced their results. Based on the results in hand and assessed results for the rest, I have applied my the ‘panch-tattva’ system of assessment for the ‘nifty’ as a whole and find that it gets 981 panch-tattva points . I may now tell you , with a fair degree of confidence , that the ‘nifty’ would be breaking through the roof given some positives. There is therefore an opportunity to pick up stocks in exchange for available cash.
I am happy to have been keeping you on bullish path since Feb 08 and more so since March 08. I advise you to go through various posts since then and have your confidence built up. I may by way of reassurance tell you this also that the down side for the market is limited. The companies , in general, are not carrying big interest burden and hence will not be afflicted by the slight down turn that some people are talking about.
There are some things that have kept the market sentiment down but in fact it does not have the long term bearing on markets. Also there are some interests working at keeping people in a kind of fear in respect of some industries. The cement and steel industries are under this kind of onslaught. You have seen that post result the ‘SAIL’ went up with vengence and ‘TATASTEEL’ did so even before the result announcement.
There is also scope in sugar scrips which do not form part of the leading indices. Some of the companies like ‘BALRAMCHIN’ and ‘BAJAJHIND’ have size and trading volumes good enough to be considered for investment. You have seen that when IT sector was out of favour , you were encouraged to go for it and some of the IT scrips have gone up by 50% from the level of their recent lows. Such returns from an identified winning sector are really a cause of celebration. The telecommunication sector is now pregnent with posssibilities and some part of investment should go in to this sector.
The inflation has been seen by analysts and experts as some thing damaging for the markets while I maintain that it will be taken in stride and would not damage. So far this has proved this way only. The saving grace about the high inflation figures is that it is not because of policy flip-flop but is due to international factors. India should not have too much fear for it. It is the political circles that are showing concern for it, the ruling party to show that it is concerned and the opposition to target the treasury benches . The UPA Govt’s fifth year in office has arrived. With elections approaching , there would be a lot of polititian’s money coming to market. Leave apart the matter of controlling inflation, it will scale newer hights. The public is not so much worried for incomes and salaries are rising by a greater margin.
The sales during 07-08 have been up by 23.6% , PBT up by 15.2%, PAT up by 20% for 1421 companies that announced results till 13th May 08. This is good showing on expanded base and the investors would surely get much more by way of dividends than ever before. At Nifty close of 5155 on Friday the 17th May 08 , our worries should ramain at bay.
For your information , the sales of fridges and ACs were up by 25% in April 08. The tourist arrivals have been higher in Jan-Mar 08 at 20.25 lac against 9.80 lacs in Jan-Mar 01.
The weaker rupee is inviting foreign investors who have been buyers during the last seek. The MFs and the Insurance companies are also buying. Besides , the promoters are busy raising stakes , Tata Group is particularly active in this respect.
HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal
