panch-tattva talk…oil matters but world will move on

Friends,

 

The following piece that was posted in JUly 06 and is reproduced for your going through it. What the world faces today should be no surprise. Now , please read it and send your comments:

“Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Market Matrix -Oil cocerns and its resolution – 18 July 2006

By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent

The oil is keeping every one uncomfortable, the govts. are concerned for the dearness of oil impacting the economies of the nations, the ordinary members are concerned about the impact on their monthly budgets, the stock market players find it difficult to judge the markets and take position as they are under constant worry of oil spoiling the game, the long term investor worry about the impact on markets in case of oil remaining dearer in long term, the user industry worries about its own bottom line, the oil producing countries worry about the backlash in form of newer fuels being proffered and the oil loosing importance, the oil money keeps upsetting the monetary flows and it also is one of the basic reason of distrust amongst nations and is responsible for many a war of past and would be the sole trigger for many a war in future, the cold war & diplomacy are particularly see it as an influence of no ordinary consequence.

The oil prices crossing $80 a barrel have taken toll in the form of markets weakening. Now I have some thing to suggest to all. Should a commodity, which is not irreplaceable, hold so much of influence on every activity under the sun? In fact the sun itself is capable of taking away much of oil’s shine. The homes need not be heated or cooled if right kind of architectural strategy is employed in building.The alternative fuels are aplenty, only thing is to promote them with a definite plan and without playing in to hands of lobbies. The mass transportation has shown that it is much more hassle free and low in consumption of fuel in terms of passenger’s kilometer costs or the tonne kilometer costs.

The solar and wind energy may be harnessed in ever-greater manner, the atomic energy is much more liable of being tamed, the tidal waves and traditional river valley projects are ready to serve the humanity. Most of all the man himself is source of energy, so cycle may be made to work as the best means of transportation, only requirement is to put in substantial resource in to developing through research newer models, better ball bearings, lighter materials.

I am at a loss that why the auto industry increasing investment in fresh capacities knowing pretty well that the pressure of demand on oil is ultimately going to make their product diminishing in demand. India’s case seems to best described as ‘naya mulla alla hi alla pukarta hai’.The govt seems to be particularly oblivious in this respect, either it is the influence of auto lobby or its hardcore foolishness. Both are equally despisable.The investors are well advised to keep their investment in auto sector to the minimum. The scene may worsen further when the highly populated countries are moving toward western model of transportation, only disasters can be seen ahead in terms of accidents on roads, pollution, noise, parking spaces, spoilage of meager economic resources when these can be put to much better uses.

Let us as citizens with consciences and thoughtful disposition act in the direction of making fossil fuel only marginally required for our living needs, and free ourselves from uncertainty.”

 

I am contactable at 09376168780 and my mail ID is krsnakhandelwal@yahoo.com.

Hari Om,

krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva talk….IIP numbers impact Nifty

Friends,

The Nifty was on sound footing in the morning of the week’s last day of business , then came in the announcement of IIP index showing just 3.8 p.c. growth in May 08 against the growth of 10.6 p.c. During May 07. Now there are two ways to look at it ie think as a pessimist that since it is down , it may continue to remain on downward course or think like an optimist that since it has come down it will have no difficulty in improving performance. Both scenario are OK as far as possibilities go but think in terms of what will give you better risk/reward ratio. If you invest at todays levels your chances of making larger gains will be defenitely more than chances of loosing a large portion of your investent. This is plainly explicable in light of historic performance of market which has hardly put investors to loss after a correction of the order of more than 35 p.c. , generally and still more in certain stocks which also show promise ahead. Secondly , when the tide turns it turns very fast after steep falls. This is particularly true of developing economies and ours is a fast developing economy. The positives of inflation angle have already been discussed by me earlier. In fact I dread to invest in a market that is slowly going down for it may erode capital over a time to a very great extent in an unnoticeable way . But after the big corrections of sudden nature, similar to what has happened over last six months , it does not allow any further downward movement for a longer period of time. This is, at least, not possible to happen in case of an economy which has a large number of people to be pulled over the poverty line  and also has younger average population. Whatever I have advocated is not a blancket advice to invest in a reckless manner . Discretion in choosing companies in right sectors is implied in my advice. I am encouraging you for it is not the time to behave meekly and it is time to put your cash resources to work as the cash is eroding in value even otherwise due to inflation. I do hope you catch what I mean and the Nifty closing at under 4050 should not unnerve you.

HariOm,
KrsnaKhandelwal