panch-tattva/post result…icicibank,maruti

ICICIBANK @434 (240404) gets 985 panch-tattva points and its safe to buy at this rate but not beyond 490/-, so book profits beyond that level.

MARUTI @803 (240409) gets 902 panch-tattva points and you may avoid buying this for now.

panc-tattva talk…hdfcbank,relinfra

HDFCBANK @1092 (230409) gets 1038 panch-tattva points and this may be bought for medium term ie book profits on surges after buying.

RELINFRA @712 (230409) gets 892 panch-tattva point and you may not rush into buying this just now.

panch-tattva/post result…acc,wipro,ultracemco,herohonda

ACC @646 (220409) gets 1173 panch-tattva points and this should be bought for medium term.

WIPRO @281 (220409) gets 961 panch-tattva points and this may be bought below 250/- hence wait.

ULTRACEMCO @567 (220409) gets 1159 panch-tattva points and this should be bought for medium term.

HEROHONDA @1081 (220409) gets 920panch-tattva points and this should not be bought just now. Its better to wait till next result.

panch-tattva talk…falls short

Friends,

RBI chief has announced reduction in repo and reverse-repo rates by 50bps. It has once again been demonstrated that that a beaurocrat will not ever take a bold decision whatever the circumstances are. The need was to do it to the extent of 150bps and at the least by 100bps. However, the markets would still be welcoming whatever little has been done.

The banks have been less inclined to loan funds , again for fear rather then for constraint. The RBI was, more or less, duty bound to force the banks to shed fear and boldly distribute credit to all needy sectors of economy. Going forward, I see that there would be further cuts and therefore it is only a matter of time that real rates of interest remain high before adjusting to reality and parity with other economies.

So far none of the major companies have announced poorer results and this should embolden the investor and choose equity over debt.

The office rentals have been down between 5 and 37pc in last quarter. This should not come as surprise because on one hand the property prices have come down and on the other the interest rates are lower. What I mean to convey is that the property prices will not be getting further beating and the lower rentals would see demand for office spaces rising.

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tatva/post result…tcs

TCS @564 (21/0409) gets 1005 panch-tattva points and is fit to be bought regularly and profits should be booked on surges.

panch-tattva/post result…infosystch

INFOSYSTCH @1397 (170409) gets 976 panch-tattva points and it may bought on down days on regular basis and profits booked on surges. It may also b held as defensive stock for medium term.

panch-tattva talk…satyam bagged

Friends,

‘Satyam’ bidding has thrown up Techmahindra as winner and it has finally landed with right party which will be able to put its operations on even keel and will be able to make it regain its lost glory. The new shares will be picked up by ‘teckm’ at Rs 58 per piece and then then there will be open purchase at similar rate to the extent of 20pc. It will be best to stick with ’satyam’ investment and even pick up some more. Since about Rs 1756 crs(for 31pc stake) will come to company itself , the derth of finance will not be a contraint for it. The liabilities will be easily met and the assets can now be preserved. One question has still not been answered ie whether there is any possibility of recovering lost moneis or its trail is being found.

L and T’s was the second highest bidder at Rs 45.90/share . It was not a close contest but the outcome is just OK for all concerned. If the going is just normal for some , the open offer at 58/- may not be taken by many and the share price may shoot past this figure. In this light it is advisable to buy shares below 58/- or even slightly higher after some time.

The markets are behaving with extraordinery confidence and have ended last day at just under 3400 of Nifty.

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva talk…PM and Advani

Friends,

Some people consider (the congress too) that Manmohan Singh would be the right PM. But Manmohan has never earned it either through a solid political career or through above average leadership and action as PM. He has been too timid and under awe of Sonia. He came into his own very late in the day and that was when the Nuke deal was held hostage by left. He sinfully allowed the farmers’ loans waiver in a very crude manner. I do not despise farmers being helped , I think the waiver has been a bad policy. It could have been a grant from the govt to farmers under stress by recording their economic status and the difficulty in repayment of loans. Or at best , instead of waiver they could have been given relief on interst payment and spreading the repayment period.They could been promised further loans to buy inputs (to those who keep paying nominal instalments of previous loan). The need infact was to train them about the importance of repayment of loan money rather than making them risky borrowers.

Further failing of Manmohan Singh is resorting cheap stunts of which Congress is so habitual and slowing down the work on diognal and quadrilateral highway
projects.

His third failing is that he did not prepare India for the impending rush of recession which was clearly signaled back in middle 2007. If we consider the Nifty as berometer of nation’s economic health , the BJP regime saw it go up from 1000 to 4000 between 2000 and 2004 while Manmohan has seen it come back to below 4000 between 2004 and 2009. The economist at helm did fail is for every body to see. Also the riches got concentrated in hands of rich and the poors and middle classes remained where they were while the claims to the contrary were being made. The difference between Bajpai and Manmohan is that Bajpai kept an eye on utilisaton of funds spent while Manmohan could not do it and kept the same style of Congress , preferring govt expenditure in a manner where some middlemen and brokers make money.

Fourthly , there are reports that ‘talibaan’ have reached in vicinity of Islamabad but Manmohan’s diplomatic initiatives and practical preparations to combat are not visible. Advani would have acted differently. We may say that while Manmohan keeps company of wrong people Advani does not have to carry such baggage and therefore he may prove to be right PM for the nation. He has also been in the political main stream for decades and has carried a national party along on the political path. The pro-hindu bias is wrongly ascribed to BJP , of course when the nationalist agenda is followed , it seems that Muslims are being targeted. Our avowed enemy happens to be a Islamic state and what BJP can do about it. Do Indian Muslims ever come out and make demonstrations that Pakistan should be a secular state too , do Kahsmiris vouch for secularism , If Kashmir is made independent would the similar demand from Muslim dominated parts of partitoned India would not come. Is Congress not responcible that it failed to have a Muslim face/s to represent both Hindus and Muslims. The Congress has never attemted to have a Muslim come up as acceptable leader of importance.

The fragmented politics of today’s India is also making of Congress because the leadership there picked up people representing it not on the personal strength of the leader but on the strength of casts he represented. When you propagate the leaders of the casts they simply see it better to become a leader , independent of the national party to have better bargaining power (for themselves rather for the casts they represnt). Indira herself had let the Congress split into tow because she could not feel herself secured as a leader amongst national level veteran leaders of the old Congress. Even this time Manmohan is choosen a PM just because Rahul is still not ready for the PM-ship.

Lastly , Advani has scored over Manmohan by calling for debate on TV while Manmohan has shrugged it. What is actually happening is that both sides are speaking against these two at different times , by different people and at different places. I think it should be made mandatory for the parties to elect a person as leader of parliamentary party by the party’s candidates who file nomination. Why this information should not be available to a voter before hand. Actually the second in line also should be declared. This will make the interparty democracy stronger.

Congress is an old machine going to be run by the hands of inexperienced (Rahul) or Manmohan (who is yet not a grassroot leader) , the BJP is a younger machine and going to be run by experienced (Advani) or by smart and proven (Modi).

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva talk…nano bookings

Friends,

The ‘nano’ booking mania may in fact taper off quickly. TM has arranged for its booking at 30000 locations in 1000 cities . Nanowebsite has had 50 million hits and since formal launch it has recorded 20 million hits. The bookings for the low end model has been minimal while the top end is being preferred. This is the reason I expect the fever will be coming down. The top end will cost on road about Rs 1.70 lac. When it is compared with the price of WagonR ( 3.30 lac ) and of Spark ( 2.8 lac) it seems not so cheap besides the owner is handicapped in so many ways ie for boot-space and for the constraint of driving on highways for inter-city trips.

There is some risk also from the angle of second hand marketability of the car. The Maruti vehicles have ready market even for used cars. The accident related safety feachers also make it somewhat a risky possession. I think one should wait for booking it and should seek customer feedback on its performance. I also think that if it had been made a two door car, slightly more sturdy and slightly smaller than it would have been cheaper enough to woo the two-wheeler users.

What I say is not in any way to throw poor light on ‘nano’ and I have profound appreciation for this engineering feat of Tatas but market place is ruthless for every product.

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva talk…the resilience

Friends,

The Nifty closed at par with yesterdays closing of 3342 while future cammanded premium of 13 points. This truncated week has made the floor for the Nifty come up slightly which may now be taken as 2905. The upmove has to halt before 3437. Beyond this it will straight to come in the vicinity of 3673. This will happen before the 20th April if the early results happen to be beating the street expectations. The lead form USA is will keep the tempo high. The cross over of 4300 mark will take us into a cielingless space.

DOW just now is up 185 points and is over 8000 level. The dollar printing tactic is helping the stock markets at least if not the real economy there.

The sugar prices have surged and so have the sugar scrips. sugar sector is small sector but investor has good chance of multiplying money. The cabinet has taken a decision to reduce 60pc duty on refined sugar to zero and would send the proposal for approval of the election commission. I don’t think that this will help reduce the sugar prices because entry of India in international market will see prices move up and there is distribution cost involved within the country after import.

Tatasteel has started trading in new range. It closed at 265/- . Nfosys EPS is estimated at 105/- and this would not impact the share price much.

ACC counter is without any smart upmoves for the time being but shen it starts to break past the 620/- level it would also be showing fire works.

I am not in favour of auto stocks at current levels and here the profit booking is the best thing to do. The realty stocks make suddenly move up and you shoould be gradually accumulation stocks in this sector.

The liquidity with banks is too much and very soon they will be agressively marketing their loan products.

RBI’s next busy season policy will have to be taking into account very many angles and be imaginative.

The election have become a non-event due to uncertainity. The traders will adopt a middle path and remain hedged. This may see the option volume and premium go sky high in May 09.

Crude at $51.33/bbl is just at right point for India.

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal