panch-tattva/post result…sunpharma

SUNPHARMA @1213 (290509) gets 1004 panch-tattva points and this may be bought on declines for long term.

panch-tattva talk/post result…bpcl,tatamotors,ioc,m and m

BPCL @464 (290509) gets 990 panch-tattva points and you must buy some quantity on decline for long term.

TATAMOTORS @336 (290509) gets 957 panch-tattva points and you may sell it now and buy below 270/- for long term.

IOC @609 (290509) gets 1011 panch-tattva points and may be bought in a small way for long term.

M&M @668 (290509) gets 925 panch-tattva points and don’t buy it now, buy below 500/- or wait till nest qtly.

panch-tattva/post result…tatapower,sail,lt

TATAPOWER @1102 (280509) gets 949 panch-tattva points and don’t buy this at current price, buy later after some correction for long term.

SAIL @164 (280509) gets 1105 panch-tattva points and you should buy half of your intended quantity right now and buy rest on days of fall in prices.

LT @1345 (280509) gets 901 panch-tattva points and its over priced just now, you may buy it below 1200/- or wait for analysis post next qly result.

panch-tattva talk…India second

Friends,

India is now the second biggest CDMA market with over 100 million connections. The first is USA with 157 million subscribers. Reliance Comm. and Tata Tele are now amongst the top five CDMA operators.
Inflation at 0.61 pc has remained under 1 pc for the eleventh straight week.

The Nifty closed the May series at 4337 while April series had closed at 3474. This is 25 pc jump and speaks volumes about the mis-judgement that is made by the organised institutinal players. It was the FIIs selling that had brought down the indices unduly and when they backed purchases with just Rs 20 K crs in cash, the rebound has been so dramatic. No doubt here that some positive development have taken place and some negative one are absent but to value permanent assets in this askewed way is some thing basically faulted. In fact the over all equity market should fluctuate rather in a more balanced way than it has been doing. The changes in economic environment at macro level do matter but its never that they announce death sentence. Its only the over-committed players who read it all wrong. An individual stock may go up and down in value very wildly for some developments like Satyam’s did but the whole broad market has to be consistant and absorbing news in a measured way. For this reason I suspect that the unreasonable movements are not just normally happening, they have some schemers with a disign at the back.

I told you this not to convey that markets have reached a wrong high point. In fact I told you just two-three month that markets right level is between 4300 to 4600. So in a way they have reached the right range. But going beyond this range will have to have some more positive developments. If it is made to go fast up even in absense of such developments and in hurry then I would have to again question the ethics of the people involved.

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva/post result…jindalstel,cairn,bhel,cumminsind,eidparry

JINDALSTEL @2077 (270509) gets 1197 panch-tattva points, you may buy it but book profits equally fast till the next qly.

CAIRN @219 (270509) gets 1075 panch-tattva ppoints and you should surely buy it for long term.

BHEL @2082 (270509) gets 908 panch-tattva points and it is slightly costly at present and hence buy it on some correction.

CUMMINSIND @262 (270509) gets 1019 panch-tattva points and this should be bought for long term.

EIDPARRY @268 (270509) gets 1476 panch-tattva points and buy it now, sell half on surges and keep rest for medium to long term.

panch-tattva talk,,,bond yield high

Friends,

The 10 year bond yield has reached six month high @6.53. The govt may borrow more than planned Rs 36 K crs in June 09. This may soak up liquidity and put some break on all activities and also stock markets.

The US housing starts were lower by 12.8 pc m/m in April 09, at 458000 units.

World electricity demand will fall 3.5 pc in 2009, it will first since 1945.

Obama thinks economy is returning to normalcy and so does Bank of Japan.

Pranab, the most trusted face of the cabinet, has spoken in terms of balancing the requirements for growth and controlling fiscal deficit. He also has shown concern for the ‘aam aadmi’. He has been non commital but says that budget will be in time. I think that in practice he will not be too much concerned for the deficit as Congress has never been. Congress knows that inflation takes care of every problem and public does not mind it much as the incomes in rupee terms also rise. The only class that cribs is the ones who have to maintain themselves on interest income only. Many in this class have working children, so the impact is some what reduced for them. If USA can go over-board for setting its own economy on growth path then why would an Indian PM or FM will not do the same.

The Sugar Futures trading will stop till Dec 09, the outstanding positions will be allowed to be squared off. This is again a dictate in line with Congress’s thinking. They do not hasitate to announce for public consumtion although it may be in contrast with the free market economy. The sugar production in 2008-09 has been just 15.5 m/t against 26.5 m/t last year and 28.3 m/t in 06-07.

The trading on day of expiry of May contracts will be either in a very very low band or will be big one directional move. The rationality takes an holiday on such a day as the operaters push indices to a level where they have maximum gain out of call-put writing. In this light, if you have any call or puts in hand then you may better don’t sell any of it at low premium either today or tommorrow. You may, however, buy lowest quoted ‘in the money’ calls and puts.

Mamta has on her first day introduced special low cost travel passes for those who earn leaa than Rs 500 per month. The passes will be for travel upto 100 KM and will cost 20/-. This smacks of her wanting to have some lollys to be given to her supporters.

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva/post result…tatacomm,bankbaroda,bankindia,canbk,idbi

TATACOMM @542 (260509) gets 811 panch-tattva points and you may sell it now and consider buying after next result.

BANKBARODA @433 (260509) gets 1337 panch-tattva points and you may keep buying it regularly and book profits partially, on surges.

BANKINDIA @322 (260509) gets 1353 panch-tattva points and you may buy it regularly and book profits on surges in part.

CANBK @1336 (260509) gets 1336 panch-tattva points and this may be bought on delines for medium term and also may be bought on regular basis with a view to book profit on surges.

IDBI @870(260509) gets 1088 panch-tattva points and you may buy this on dips in a few strokes for long term.

panch-tattva talk…markets uneasy

Friends,

It has been over a week since the trading saw suspension for the day after indices hit upper circuit, thrice in a day. Since March 9, 2009, the FII pumped in Rs 24779 crs till 21st May ‘09. This saw sensex rise by 70.02 pc. This kind of upmove calls for some rethinking and market participants are doing just that. Also Indian markets have given best returns in the region with an exception of Taiwan. The delivery from govt has to be in line of expectations otherwise the markets may lose values equally fast. Should it happen, it will be time to get in because the long term has all the promise.

N Korea experimented with a ‘nuke’ device and this has affected currency prices including Re which has fallen. It is at 47.29 for a dollar.

The Nifty (4237) PE is at 15.78 and can not be said to be in the danger zone. The markets would be dented if the IPOs come in a rush and place demand on funds. However 7-8 pc swings on either side should be taken in stride without changing the stretagy that has been adopted by you as per your own game plan. SEBI has given approval to 18 IPOs for raising funds upto Rs 7405 crs.

The Asian markets have opened lower with exception of Taiwan and may extend shadow of gloom here too. The t/o is moderate and the PCR (put-call ratio) is also in normal range.

It is going to be demise of ‘bajajhind’ as the preferred share as it is in the process of diluting equity very fast. It has got share-holders approval of fund raising through issue of fresh equity or convertible instruments, here and abroad, for mopping Rs 1450 crs as long term funds. When it is completed the market capitalisation of ‘bajajhind’ will exceed Rs 3500 crs which is too big for a player in sugar industry to have. You can not raise capacities etc at will in case of sugar as its raw material comes from farms. They may utilise cash for take-over of other units but that will a huge cost because the valueations are no more cheap enough. Also, I don’t have faith in ‘bajajhind’ management which has been acting not in the best interests of the small share-holders. Their reporting. standard is bad and confusing. In this light, I suggest that the interest should be shifted to ‘balramchin’. ‘Balramchin’ closed yesterday at 90/- while ‘bajajhind’ closed at 145/-, the recent lows for these two have been 32/- and 39/- respectively. The recent movement has made the difference in market-cap of the two very large.

While I am writing this post, the Asian markets have turned into green with an exception of Nikkei.

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva talk…PM and team sworn in

Friends,

The new govt under leadership of Manmohan Singh gets formed. There are some new faces but old stalwarts remain. The imperatives with PM has forced him to not experiment. The PC remains home minister but Ministry of External Affairs has come under S M Krishna who may deliver or may not. The Finance Ministry is given to Pranab. He is an old hand but I have doubts whether he will be able to take due steps for furtherence of the new age Indian economy. The task ahead is of balancing, to tax right pockets in right measure and raise enough revenue for helping the needy in direct manner, and providing for the infrastructure and nation building (which is creation of enough jobs for the idle hands). We have to grapple with same or similar problems which the rich nations like America also have to deal with. The difference is that we benefit immensely when foreign saving flow in here and they have to stem it from flowing out.

The Railway Ministry did well under Lalu but under Mamta it may not do the same. It is not that Mamta is any less competant, it is just so that the luck may not be with her. Also her mannerism of taking stands against govts whether for the benifite of people or against the people, will make her a poor administrator. Railways by its very character have come up by doing what she prefers to protest against. How will she justy presiding over an organisation which has to displace some pockets of population every now and then for creation of new lines.

The new govt have to coax and cajole the business houses for showing industrial initiative while it has to keep the pride of Mamtas also who have been referred to as ‘bad-M’ by the same class. Tatas will be having very restless feeling about their stand agaist Mamta. She happens to be a power centre herself. The populism creates very many unsavoury situations. The populists should not be governing, they will have to either become rational and lose popular support or they will not deliver.

The West Bengal’s Communist govt became a victim itself because it could not manage the two sides. One can’t keep a smile on face and frown too. The steady fast forward reforms can never be easy for any govt in India for such reforms directly help the organised businessmen which becomes difficult for the masses to digest. For capital formation and utilisation, you have to give some largess to the industrial houses first and then only the jobs etc can be created. This process can only be slow and steady. People do have faith in Manmohan but only to an extent, any favour to the rich may derail the Congress’s march ahead.

As for the markets, I must say that thus far the bulls have just had the ground levelled for themselves. The bullish punches are missing. After consolidation, the bulls will be attacking. The reason behind my saying so is the fact that liquidity remains comfortable and can not be mopped up for fear of slow down. Secondly some of the big listed companies have ensured to perform better in future. FII mood has become positive. The past trading week has been a very good one which saw markets up by over 15 pc and closed at near high levels. This happened while the T/O also rose.

HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal

panch-tattva/post result…itc,ntpc

ITC @183 (220509) gets 1047 panch-tattva points and this must be bought for long term.

NTPC @216 (220509) gets 1039 panch-tattva points and this also should be bought for long term.