Friends,
I request you all to please visit my new site www.niftywisdom.com from now on. You will find all that was being made available to you here and more. You may , however, keep coming here for referring the material available in archive of this site.
HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal
PRISMCEM @51 (071009) may be accumulated for long term and may be sold at above 76/- till next assessment.Need not put stop loss.(Ref1301:60/36:17/21)
PFIZER @870 (290909) may be bought for medium/long term.Stop Loss as advised under guidelines.(Ref 1137:996/435:17/21)
Friends,
The rupee (at 47.89/dollar) has become stronger and the capital inflows are high. The RBI chief has started making the expected noise about having to take measures for curbing money supply. I am surprised what makes RBI shiver when the flows are high and there is more money here to work with. What is so scary for them that want to upset the apple cart. If rupee gets stronger and hurts the exporters it may just buy some dollar and help. Afterall China must have doing the smae to keep the Rembini down. Has it not achieved the unthinkable of India type growth rate. We have to shed our still sticking remains of the Hindu Rate of Growth era. It will not yet harm India to cover more ground in short term for we still haven’t taken care of the nutrition and health needs for all, leave apart shelter and education.
The telecom scrips were badly mauled yesterday for no known fault of theirs besides having the courage to compete on strength of market getting larger and being successful at cutting costs. This is a natural outcome of many players in the field that has room for two or three that the fierce competition get underway and eventual consolidation (through mergers of weaker with stronger takes place). Did I not tell you that Bharti is uselessly trying to go global while home turf has to secured. I must appreciate RCOM for boldly initiating price war, India is going to get more integrated as a result and the movement of labour more free because the people away from home may remain more in touch.What a wonderful development is new age telecom, the lowliest have more power to communicate than Akbar had. The wise would buy into both the leaders, RCOM and BHARTI.
You have seen that the rebound here has been dramatic, the Nifty closed higher yesterday at 5027. Europe and US economies have yet not been out of nursing ward but the stocks there have no intention to reflect that situation and scaling up ( Obama is on side of more spending and tax cuts as the jobs are still disappearing).
SAIL has half the slice of Chiria mines and the other half will go to private palyers.This ensures future supply of ore to SAIL (Chiria reserves are about 2 billion tonnes).
Sugar scrips are on wicket at the moment and should form part of your portfolio for the time being.
Steel scrips were up but out of turn, the steel prices are subdued since some time back.
The Hindustan Unilever did a rope trick yesterday which is unlike its character. This was due to the fact unloading of soem part of portfolio generated cash and since the players are in no mood to withdraw cash HINDUNILVR was lapped up. Surely times have changed for the FMCG and Pharma which will have a larger population with more spending power and better awareness about their products to cater to. So this is also a sector to be viewed with some degree of greed.
HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal
Friends.
The shares with differential voting rights (DVR) are yet not popular in India. Tata Motors had issued them some time back and the issue was not welcomed by public in general which was more on account of the conditions then prevailing rather then due to the aversion for DVR shares. The promoters and arrangers/managers ect had to pick them up. Now the same are selling at some discount (about 30pc) and would be a good pick for the fortunes of Tata Motors have become attractive on back of CV sales picking up and expected to gather momentum and on back of successful launch of ‘nano’ which will be supplied in bulk in future. It commands premium at the moment ie those who have booking may get some premium for trasferring to the interested buyer. I think the DVR shares should be issued by promoters as a routine for this will keep them safe from the requirement of proportion contribution to maintain holding level. Secondly the discount on such shares and higher dividend entitlement makes it attractive for the common investor. He happens to to be safer then otherwise because the manipulative power of promoters goes down. The SEBI has not been permitting issues of DVR shares after the first such issue but I think they will come round after the markets here become more mature.
There is no question about India spending ever larger amounts on infrastructure. Rakesh Kumar Chaudhary says in an article in FE (5/10/09) that ‘for every 1pc less spending on infrastructure, there is 1pc loss in GDP. Now point is how to generate resources of high order and not destablise the fiscal and financial balances otherwise aimed at. I gave the solution only a fews back and that was to somehow bring the capital in Indian hand out in the open which is stashed away in form of precious metals. The govt should give some incentives in form of saving on taxes and in form of returning the equal quantity of gold/silver at some time in future. The resource so generated will be without burden of interest but the spending of so raised money has to be 100pc for the purpose of creating infrastructure of the type which may pay back enough returns to take care of the liability created. Thus the need would be fulfilled, the worth will be back in publics hands and the nation will be left with useful infrastructure for a long long time in future.
We had Nifty advancing by more than 2.5pc over the three trading sessions in last week. The cues form Asia this morning are not positive and the mood may rub off on traders in India when the market opens. Some correction was even otherwise due and does not mean end of world, the resumption of upside moves will again be noticed after some time.
HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal
Friends,
State Bank of India has for the umpteenth time reduced the interest rates on retail deposit. This is simple extension in line with the lower credit off take and risks in doling out retail credit to all and sundry. I have been at pain explaining all the while that the high interest (real rate) phenomenon is afflicting Indian businesses most. Since there is higher return on investment in India, it was being absorbed. Every passing day we are heading in the direction of a freer movement of capital but the govt has still not formally opened the doors by keeping useless but detrimetal curbs. The portfoio investments are rising and making rupee strong. Our businessmen are still not being allowed to think big and conceive mega projects. The result has been that the high profitabilty of operations is giving lot of cash back in hand and the enterpreneures are trying just to put the same back in business by expansion etc. The whole scenario has therefore kept us at a level of growth which is far lower than the potential. The west is not fully competent to take advantage of the invitation extended for entering Indian business arena for lack of managerial personell of their own. The groups in China and Japan have problem of trust and language and the later also has the aging population of its people as a deterent.
There is another angle which does not let India grow at break-neck speed. We have been an agrarian society and have been seeing effort bear fruit over time at natural pace and aided by nature itself. We plant seeds and let it convert in to a tree, so do we do in case of our business enterprises. We find it foolhardy to bring growth through aggression. We are aggressive only when we have to defend livelihood, we have never been aggressive to aquire means of livelihood. Our patience and the practice of saving todays output in form of seeds for tommorrow is reflection of the same. It is therefore not our grain to borrow too heavily and conceive mega projects. We would never order the building of underground rail networks simultaneously although it is the requirement in at least a dozen cities ( the capital is waiting to come from all over). We can develop railway network by adding another track, connecting a few remote regions, introducing more trains, adding a few platforms on busy stations etc but when it comes to creating dedicated freight corridor or a special track for superfast trains between two stations, we begin to faulter or downrightly demur. We keep amending our archaic laws but an entirely new set of law is found to be difficult to put in place. We have never ever tried to solve the problem viz a viz Pakistan in a decisive manner inspite of having such might and support. The Chinese and the Americans and the Japanese have no such restraint. They would go all out when moment is opportune for them. We are loved for being so and laughed at too.
I would not say that we should lose our inviduality because losing indiviality is like losing all. I would however stress that raising pace of our progress in accordance with the times is by no means bad. Its time we ask our people to bring out in the open the shy capital (resting in our vaults as gold and silver) and with some additional borrowing from outside, do take care of water-resource mangement, power availability etc and pull out of the recess of poverty the entire population that is living in subhuman conditions in one single sweep.
Today is a special day for us Indians. The father of our nation was born today. He did what was difficult for an army to do ( by army I mean army of social servents, army of political activists, army of relious preachers and the army of soldiers as well). Gandhi, the Mahatma does belong to catagory of ‘Buddha’,'Mahavir’,'Nanak’ and ‘Adi Shankara’.
HariOm,
krsnaKhandelwal
You are invited to take part in this contest and win prizes. All you have to do is to put your entry in the comment box of this post by 8th Oct 09 about your level of expected Nifty closing on 9th Oct 09.
First Prize: The entry that comes nearest to Nifty’s actual closing but within a range of +/- 5 points will win a prize of Rs 200/- .
Second Prize: The entry that is exact to the extent of whole number will win a prize of Rs 500/- .
Third Prize: The entry that is correct to the extent of first decimal point will win a prize of Rs 2000/- .
Fourth Prize: The entry that comes correct to the extent of upto second decimal point will win a prize of Rs 10000/-.
Only one entry can be made be by one person.
No disputes will be entertained and our decision will be final and binding. There is no entry fee.
krsnaKhandelwal
Mobile:+919724313034
Email:krsnakhandelwal@yahoo.com
