Saturday, September 30, 2006
Market Matrix – The GDP growth and the corporate profitability – 30 Sep 2006
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
Gentlemen,
The govt just announced that the growth in GDP for the five months ended Aug 2006 have exceeded 8% mark comfortably. In these five month the tax revenue is up by 39% and non tax revenue is up by over 15%.These numbers are really interesting and leave one wondering whether the stock market would be gaining strength on the back of these numbers, I am not so sure. No doubt, the increased tax collection would enable govt to contain fiscal and revenue deficit and this is something that gives comfort.
Since the quarter ending 30 Sept 06 will only be a quarter and the numbers it gives will be for the growth over the corresponding quarter last year. The gullible public is given or gets the impression that this growth is over the growth of 1st quarter in current year. What I mean to say is that even if the rate of growth shows slight improvement in this quarter against the growth numbers for the first quarter (both over corresponding quarters last year) it should not be taken as signal for the still better next year for the corporates.There always remains a possibility of slips between cup and the lip. I am not talking dejectedly; I am talking as the dream run has been going on for far too long. If you account for the returns by way of the nominal interest return of 8% on capital plus if you expect just two percent additionally for the element of risk involved in equity investment, the projected Nifty would have to be between 3950 to 4000 and the Sensex between 14000 to 14200. One year from now and it will have to be 4200/15000 after next financial year i.e. 31st March 07.
I call upon you to be optimistic and assess if these numbers seem possible to you. The ones who have doubt should keep the moneys in interest bearing instruments in the proportion of their doubt in this regard.
I am only trying to make matters simple for the uninitiated. I further state that the tax revenue growth cannot translate for the existing listed companies in to more than 25% net profit surge on an average for every incremental rupee of profit. The tax rates are at the highest hence would restrict the PAT .This reflects in higher PE ratio than otherwise would have been the case. Therefore, those who expect that next year would be bringing down the PE ratio for the indices are in the wrong, this year it rests at over 20 against 18 last year in spite of surge in profits. The PE ratio at over 20 is non-digestible for me personally; I cannot speak for others with authority.
The Nifty closed at 3588 after crossing 3600 mark for some time on 29 Sep 2006.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Market Matrix – We should be as a nation a SEZ -29 Sep 2006
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
Gentlemen,
The SEZs so enthusiastically announced by every industrial group as the thrust area has been seeing the dark clouds lately. Actually, it seems the players wanted to out smart each other without trying to get the debate rolling for the people to see for themselves the benefits flowing to every section of society. Ours is politically enlightened society, we have to generally see the worth of the scheme as a society but those in power forget that and jump to the things without the proper disclosures.
The Neta-Babu-Big Money combines in their own interest because they are guided by their on profit motives, luckily, for the political masters the mandate is mixed and no particular political lobby may highjack the national interests. In fact, the big money is bereft of the industrial ideas and has suddenly come in to more money and they have taken the SEZ initiative as a ploy to corner the real estate chunks without inviting critisism.This is really in bad taste. Those who have money should become more philanthropic and more vocal about the guiding principles must appreciate Mrs. Sonia Gandhi for coming forward and giving voice to a sensitive public concern. This is the leadership quality one should cultivate and this may eventually establish her as far taller than the other leaders who are not able to see beyond their support groups and limited choices and beyond their own interest. I have been a critic of her, but this one gesture has turned me into respecting her and seeing some underlying principle when she shrugged from taking the high office, it was again the right judgment about the popular mood beyond the party people and its reflection in practice.
The industrial activity reasonably should remain low key in UP and Bihar as these are endowed with rich agricultural lands. These states should be dotted with only the matching agricultural industry to add value to and preserve the agricultural produce for wider distribution and storage. Its not a bad thing if the labour from these states travels to other destinations to do work there and seasonally comes back to attend to agricultural duties for the household. I have discussed this matter with the migrant labourers and have found that they do not mind this arrangement as they have joint families to enable them to follow this practice. It is the shortsightedness of the govt and thinkers who instead of giving support to the practice, actually see it as a problem of unemployment in hinterland and as a problem of rehabilitating these migrant workers. What is required is to give them fast, clean transportation facilities at low cost and to provide them with dormitories and mass catering facilities with proper amenities to be hired for the desired period of their stay. This will take care of the slums and of the law order problems. The country would shine as much as it never did. This will create an atmosphere where the migrant worker would be welcome and not seen as menace. The seasonal employability would make the idle hand work for the development of the economy and would create the markets for the goods produced by industry. It would ensure that the rich agricultural lands are not spoilt and the environment is non- polluted in the thickly populated states.
Lastly, a reasonable mind would be wondering whether the SEZs are given a name like this for the real purpose of making a special class of people who in reality want to be Special Economic People. What makes it better, which would not the whole nation, benefited applying the same incentives and tax rates? We may declare the whole nation as SEZ, we have every thing .We are free, we are democratic, we are talented, we are a younger nation, we have docile population, we have benign climate, we have resources, we have technology, we have entrepreneurial strength, we have managerial talent and we have acceptance the world over due to non-aligned policies and due to non-aggressive attitude. We should be as a nation a SEZ where the money would be poured in from all over the world. Why create SEZs at unnatural points and perforce bring the industry there and create an opportunity for the people to cheat exchequer etc and confine the benefit to select few. China went for it for its masters did not want to thinly spread the benefit for the society.
About the markets I have to again point out that some scrips have moved beyond the reasonable level of prices and some sector of industry are showing signs of tiredness hence please keep your rupee not invested in equity for the time being. The Nifty closed range bound at 3572 points on 28 Sep 2006.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Friday, September 29, 2006
Panch Tattva – Recent : SBI : 60928
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
Gentlemen,
I have picked State Bank of India this time to give you the numbers worked out under ‘Panch Tattva Teknik’ . This is a sound scrip with a lot more potential but it has already has had good bull run .Please pay attention to following:
State Bank of India @1029/-(on 28 Sept 06) gets 1065 points and the ones who hold it and the ones interested in buying should buy in small quanties on declines and than hold till the next qly results have been analysed.
May I ,please, draw your ateention to the recommendations given during last fortnight:
RIL recommended for purchse @1140/- on 60916 has appreciated to 1168/-
SAIL recommended for purchase @74/- on 60917 has appreciated to 75.30 .
INFOSYS recommended for sale @1817/- on 60917 has gone up to 1858/- (sale is still maintained)
ITC recommended for purchase @ 181/- on 60918 has appreciated to 184.30
MUL recommended for sale @928/- on 60920 has gone up to 943/- and sale is still maintained.
TCS recommended for sale @1053/- on 60921 has gone down to 1020/-( you may buy it back at around 970/-).
TISCO recommeded for puchase @496/- on 60922 has appreciated to 519/-.
Since I so forcefully invite you to bank on the ‘Panch Tattva Teknik’ I thought it fit to give you the report card for understanding the real worth of the teknik. As you are aware the markets in the mean time have been moving up and down during the last fortnight,the advice has still kept you in good stead. For other points covering the basics of the ‘Panch Tattva Teknik’, readers may like to refer to previous posts under the similar heading.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Panch Tattva – Recent : AMAR REMEDIES, MEDIAVIDEO – 60926
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
60926
Please have a look at following for the trading purposes:
AMAR REMEDIES @57/- (26 Sep 06) gets 995 points and you may buy this with a view to book profit whenever it moves beyond 65/- upto next qly,also please put to use stop loss to exit at 4% fall(50%) and exit fully at 8% fall .
MEDIAVIDEO @40/- (26 Sep 06) gets 1046 points and may be bought and kept till the next qly result when the fresh evaluation would be required to be done for further action,those who desire may book profits in the mean time according to their own judgement,please apply stop losses as given above.
You attention is drawn towards the following points to understand the basics of the ‘Panch Tattva Technik’ :-
a) The point level denotes that stock is weaker if it has points under ‘1000’ and is stronger if it has points over ‘1000’. At level of ‘1000’, the stock is supposed to be rightly priced. The variation against 1000 level does not denote the exact proportion in price strength.
b) The point are ascribed after careful derivation of certain ratios based on the most recent quarterly results, management strength, industry prospects, political climate, price history, interest rate scene etc. It actually takes care of every aspect affecting the price.
c) The trading strategy is given in each case and should be followed.
d) Since there are always fresh developments affecting the price, a stop loss mechanism should be followed. You may sell off half the quantity upon slide in price to the extent of 3-4% and sell entire quantity upon 6-8% fall in price. Once out of stock you should not look back at the same stock until fresh point level is given after announcement of next quarterly result.
e) Some stocks would be studied and regularly posted on this column for every body to take advantage of and you may simply track prices to have confidence in the efficacy/efficiency of the system before actually trying your hand out.
f) This system has been empirically tested for over a decade and there are people who have drawn immense benefit out of the advice based on this.
Two points given below about Trading Strategy sould also be followed.
1. KNOW WHEN TO TAKE STOCK:
Know when you would sit down to take stock of the situation for moving out of a trade, in my scheme of things the next quarterly result announcement is the day when you must ask for the new ‘Panch Tattva’ numbers.
2. THE INVESTMENT QUANTUM/SIZE:
I suggest that in this regard you should invest not more than 5% of you investible funds in each recommended stock under ‘Panch Tattva teknik’.This would keep you from worrying excessively.
Gentlemen, the taste of the pudding lies in eating, you may ask for advice in respect of stock(s) of your own choice, against an introductory moderate charge of INR 10/- per scrip up to 30 Sept 2006 and INR 20/- from 1 Oct 2006 onwards. You may contact me at my Cell 09376168780 or email me at krsnakhandelwal@yahoo.com .
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Monday, September 25, 2006
Market Matrix – Riches in Rural Enablement – 25 Sep 2006
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
First, please look at some statistics:
• The size of Indian Rural market is around INR 13 lac crores (13 trillion) as against urban market size of INR 11 lac crores (11 trillion).
• 72 % of Indians live in villages and just 28% in cities.
This is a veritable advantage. We do not have to be worried to death for urban afflictions and we may rightly direct the development effort at any time for just and fruitful outcome as the fabric we have is without parallel in the entire world. Those inhabiting the rural area have means of lively hood nearby, if not fully rewarding. They are perched on the ground safe for inhabitation, less prone to floods and vagaries of nature as these are not forced unnatural settlements (unlike Surat and Mumbai which have seen the floods almost destroying these cities due to unnatural expansion on lands not suitable for it).The government while directing its infrastructural capacities towards urban India because of the power centers having such an interest, should make sure that these settlements are disturbed in the least. What ever should be tried for the benefit of these villages should be tried with the idea of keeping these preserves in tact with the benefits flowing to them on account of newer technologies like solar power, sattelite communication, service roads connecting with highways and mainline railways. Just so much will enable them to be independent economic communities without attendant problems of commuting, sanitation, security and housing, which are so menacingly looking in to the face of urban India. The best of the brains and global capital supports prove to be power less to fully address these maladies of the urban India.
The planned efforts in line with above suggestion will see these villages, dotted across India at the right points , not farther than an hour journey to a city centre in almost 95% of the cases .This will leave just 5% villages to be taken care for differently as the case be. So far, we have seen the shifting of population under attraction of facilities and jobs, now we have to see to it that they are put with access to facilities and jobs from home itself.
I had occasion to interview a vast number of people working in big cities who are from rural backgrounds. They have no lure for the big city, their heart lies in their own villages. Even an untouchable of the previous times, who confirmed that he faces no discrimination because of the social status in cities, will still find it more likeable to stay in his home village, given the economic freedom to do so. Again, I am referring to China, which has unwittingly displaced 150 million of its migrant workers in the name of progress without realising the magnitude of the problem it has created for itself.
Now, please see in contrast where we are heading towards against where we should head. The capex of India Inc has crossed INR one trillion mark. Refinery sector accounts for INR 18K crores, Steel sector roughly INR 12k crores, Power INR 8K crores and telecom INR 7K crores approx. and Textile and IT get roughly INR 5K Crores each. While these investment also are necessary but nothing matching has been done for the rural India, these investments will only ask for some migrants workers to join in only.
The gross fixed assets of 1425 firms amount to INR 7.67 lac crores, of which the top 100 account for 80% share (up 11.7% over last year). These numbers are music to the development buffs but some give sinking feeling without the equivalent thrust for the rural needs in form of simple needs of connectivity, which would have outlays of much lesser magnitude. The solar power harnessing should also be subsidised by taxing the energy guzzlers in the cities by direct transfer to obtain twin advantage of making cities less attractive and rural areas more attractive.
I advise the investors to be converting their holdings in to cash as far as possible and rebuild their portfolios in new light after the announcement of half yearly results, the Nifty at 3540 at 1045 hrs on 25 Sep 2006 is definitely at cross roads.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Friday, September 22, 2006
Market Matrix – The opportunity being lost – 22 Sep 2006
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
Our economy has coolly progressed at the rate of 8% per annum on an average for the last three years. This is something that one has to cheer about. It has been no small achievement for the economy of our size and that too under not so strong leadership or calmer times. I have a feeling that India is now poised for the faster growth trajectory from here onwards as the necessary environment is there with the only exception that the govts commitment for reforms is not to the desired level. Here comes the communist factor spoiling the party. The time has come for the two mainstream parties, namely, Congress and BJP to come closer, stop criticizing each other unecessarily, create a climate when they forge an alliance bereft of every type of regional party support. Both parties are for reforms and both are basically secular, their gimmicks apart, both have the larger interest of the nation at heart and what is more both do not have leadership command of cheap kind. During the last decade both have lead the government and have presided over the unbelievable progress course. The leaders of both the parties command respect here and out side and have ministerial talent.
The interest rates is not going to be cause of worry for the enterpreneur.In fact the interest rates for the 10yr Govt paper is now down to7.67 % as against 8.42 % in July last year. US Fed has left the rates untouched. So clearly, the worries on this account have finished for the time being. The oil related worries have relieved the govts treasury managers. The poor would not have to be burdened with high prices of kerosene and gas. This belittles the importance of the parties who gain support because of crying hoarse for such possibilities without a plan to make the end meets for the govt. too.
The Noble Laureate Michael Spence has forecasted that the US economy is likely to be hit by recession that would influence most global economies. For us there is a redeeming feature. We have yet not so much integrated with the world economy while our giant neighbour has now much more integration with the world economy. We would therefore have scope of adjusting our priorities in good time for such an eventuality. Our managers of economy should now pay attention towards balanced but faster growth by some how curbing the unnecessary political movements against the core projects and Medha Patker type agitationists who hardly serve the purpose of their own constituency but hurt much more the ones who stand to gain from the benefits flowing out the project when completed. The financial cost of this is enormous and the social cost is no less.
RBI governor is not relaxing yet and has in mind the fear of inflation. He would think twice before announcing that the dear money policy is going to be given a good bye, in effect we may assume that he would not let the path of progress be blocked when the time comes. Now my appeal is directed towards the industrialists to shed timidness and be bold .They would not be entirely risking their monies, the masses are ready to share with them the risk component of the enterprise. Work more they will have to, also they would have to assume the role of the supervisor rather be their own hands down manager. “Think big at this juncture and come forward” is my advice to the men of grit amongst them .The stage is set and the path is smoother than ever before. The country should now cover the lost ground and catch up.
Our economic strength is needed to keep us safe from our enemies at whose hands we have suffered all through medieval as well as the recent history. Today only a healthy ,substantial and surplus economy can foot the bill of safe guarding the nation and the national boundries.So it is not the consumption orientation only ,it is the defense needs that is calling for the urgency in developing the nations industry and filling its coffers and embarking on the sound defense related arrangements. I am more concerned with it is due the fact that the earlier referred giant neighbour may again do strange things if the situation back home for the present coterie in command turns hostile to them or the control slips. It has no compunction or compassion to see the propriety of any move. After all the character of a nation and its people is not built in short time. Individually the Chinese are wonderful people but collectively they have no holds barred and for the ruling class love for humanity has never been the reason to do or not do some thing. Their enemies have done unbelievable thing unto them and they do not have limits for them selves. Let us be wary with the greater interaction and with the improved warfare techniques. When the USSR was all powerful , Mao had no hitch in throwing his weight around ,this gamesman ship is another reason that we have to move ahead inspite of our simple living and high thinking formula,afterall we have to see that the coming generation is not under any body’s thumb.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Market Matrix – The Oil and Index – 21 Sep 2006
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
The powerful lobby took the markets high yesterday by a good margin on the strength of falling crude prices while on the 19th the reverse had happened, the US Fed may not raise the interest was another thing giving positive push.
These two factors have a different impact according to me. The first of the falling crude prices says that the surplus in oil sector will take a beating. It is only the extra dollar per barrel that converts in to surplus for investment, the normal crude prices take care of the costs, maintenance a, regular expenditure requirements and the tax. I draw your attention to the fact of rising crude prices, rising stock markets, rising bullion prices, rising interest rates, rising metal prices and rising property/real estate prices, all together. ‘ Why was it so’, find an answer and you would realise that it was the surplus generated by oil biggies which was finding way in to every kind of investible item and place. The fall in crude suggests the reverse , actually the money would get not thinly spread and would not be there to influence the prices of investible commodities and assets any more, so in my opinion the end less flow of dollar would plummet for most of the emerging economies.
Further, the falling crude price is not going to translate in to cheaper petrol for the Indians, at best, it would help the Govt. and the public sector distribution related oil companies and ONGC, so any impetus in the auto industry is very different. Make most out of this situation by getting out selectively.
The interest rate initiative of the US Fed is not going to affect us in any which way so on this score neutral impact may be kept in mind.
Therefore, this is the contrarian voice this time, the market has opened today up by 25 points and NIFTY is ruling at over 3525 mark.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
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Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Performance Report of 11 Aug 2006 Recommendations – 20 Sep 2006
| Security | Price/11Aug | Price/20 Sep | 52wk Hi | 52wk Lo | Diff(+/-) | %Diff | Value Index |
We recommended these NSE Eq Segment scrips in our post on 11 Aug 2006.The above table gives the price difference in 28 trade days.We now recommend to book profit in top five scrips,hold next five scrips for further appreciation and buy more quantity of last five scrips.Value index is also given for reference as on 11 Aug 2006.
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Market Matrix – We and China – 19 September 2006
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
The progress of China on the economic front has been so frantic that no body dares to criticize for what China did to achieve it .Actually it is now turning out that it did not do so much as it much is left to do. What Chinese leadership followed can be seen as letting China turn into a production base with foreign capital and with foreign technology without putting any laws in place to curb their wrongful activity and without a mechanism for the welfare of its working class and for its due reward in the increased economic activity.
Please try to see what I propose to convey to you.
China is reported to have some 200 million workers who sleep in ill kept dormitories (a report says that China has 150 million migrant workers while India has 30 million migrant workers).What it means that the labour class in China has not got its due and the poorly paid wages have made it possible for the foreign capital to earn hefty margins on each dollar of investment .This was due to employing the 21st century manufacturing technique and infrastructure and following nineteenth century business policies. The dream returns on capital brought in $ 800 billion investment to China since 1980. With so much money invested, every hand became productive and employed. Other laws in the field of environment, rehabilitation, compensation, minimum wages, industrial safety and prudent accounting etc were not put in place and it was sort of free play never seen any where else in the modern world.
The western economies which suggests to India to see to it that child labour is not employed for the manufacture of items of export was not restless when in China the labour was not getting its due and was living in appalling conditions. The reason is not far to seek, it was the reward for dollars invested that was keeping them from uttering a word. One may ask what was in it for the Chinese people. Here you have to understand that it the marriage of convenience of two powerful lobbies. It used to be said about communism that it is in fact the capitalism of the state; in this case, it simply is the capitalism of a few people who have connection with governing power centers of the state.
China could construct the dream projects like ‘rail to sky’, the infrastructure for the Olympics and the dam on the mighty river on account of the tyrannical practices of the employer which only managed by the practice of meeting the targets. No ear was being lent to the voice of concerned for the affected people and the labour conditions. Such voices met the same fate as was meted out in times of construction of the great wall.
The times seem to be changing; the cheap labour may now be paid higher share in the kitty. The leadership there has already spoken loudly in this regard. What it means for India. It simply means that the competitive edge of China is going to go away ,the labour is cheap here also besides India has some advantages unique to it self which China does not have. The flow of dollars would turn towards India. Infrastructure is getting better by the day. Our only problem is cheap politics that mars the grand designs of the thinkers. The day is not far when we too have a powerful leadership to check these things. Under Nehru, the young India had progressed at such a pace that the communist China had to practically stop India by invading its borders. It was the fight of the ideologies at the back of whole thing; the mixed economy model was proving better than the communist model. By the way, the mixed economy model of India is still keeping its head above water but it is under threat. India should preserve this legacy.
I would expect my fellow citizens to be ready with their investible rupee; many a lucrative projects are on the drawing board of entrepreneurs and would be ready to demand participation through public issue route. The cost of raising capital though public issue route is less than half-today of what it was since last twenty years, this puts both the users and providers of capital in good stead. The sun will now be shining more brightly on India.
Vande Mataram,
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Sunday, September 17, 2006
Panch Tattva – Recent : SAIL , Infosys , ITC , Maruti , TCS & Tata Steel : 60917 – 60922
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
60917
This time I am talking of Steel Authority of India. Steel industry is some what affected on account of Chinese steel material finding way in to Indian market and is further on the defensive wicket on account of massive investment in pipeline for creating fresh capacities. This is only misplaced pessimism and should be taken advantage of by the smart investor. The points under our ‘Panch Tattva Teknik’, as given below show some promise:-
SAIL @74/- gets 1283 points and this calls for investment in to this scrip without fear, one may regularly keep adding to portfolio and see the next quarterly performance figure before unloading. In this case, stop losses may better not be put for knee jerk reaction otherwise, one would see share going out of hands.
Another scrip happens to be Infosys Technologies ,the scrip commands all the respect of people but please look at the points it gets and decide for yourself what you should do as per the following, in my opinion this scrip is under distribution by the large holders and may slide when the demand for it is satiated :-
INFOSYS TECH @1817/- gets 915 points and this a clear indication that that this should not be held and should be sold off if in stock, this should not be purchased either till it gets better point level after the next qly result or till there is some stock specific reliable news.
60918
I have also choosen ITC for your benefit.This is a very sound scrip with management of excellent calibre,their business lines are diverse and paying,they have truly Global Indian out look and have no fear from the rising/falling rupee and short term worries.It should be dealt by you in the following manner as worked upon current price and 1st qtr result:-
ITC @ 184/- gets 980 points and this suggests that one should not loose any opportunity of buying this on decline and should have in mind to keep booking profits along the way for it does not have any immediate potential to explode.
60920
‘Maruti Udyog Limited’ has been also been taken up for assessment,you are invited to share the emerging view :-
MUL @928/- gets 923 points and I may assure you there is nothing very interesting about the stock at present apart from what the manageent has tole about expansion in a big, it is not certain that expansion would pay off ,there are enough ifs and buts . I would suggest that those who hold it get out on jumps and wait for the time when the ‘panch tattva teknik’ gives better numbers upon the next qly results.
60921
Tata Consultancy Services is a very formidable companies and it came out with the first public issue about a year back and this goes to the credit of Rata Tata that he kept some room for the upward move in post issue era,after the bonus issue in one to one ratio it is still above the issue price.Tatas (as a group) in fact have the ability to raise Rs. one lac crore from market should the need arise,this is no small credibility for the world standards also.Coming to the ‘panch tattva ‘ assessment ,I have to give you some disheartening news :-
TCS @ 1053 gets 943 points and this does not allow me to invest any further in this stock, better still would be to sell part of holding as there would be a time when I would be able to replenish it buying cheaply even before the result for the current quarter is out.
60922
Please have a look at ‘panch tatva’ numbers for the powerful company , member of the esteemed TATA Group.Steel business is at a cross road ,it faces dumping by China as the demand in China is lower due to completion of some mega projects and the capacity now lying idle.It may close down the marginal plants as its capacity is too fragmented or it may destabilise the regional supply balance.I have some hopes in this regard that in India steel like a basic material would not be allowed to be imported without resistance and the domestic demand is slated to explode while the fresh capacity is taking more than expected time to come up. The intervenining period is a good opportunity for this company to garner ever greater profits.Those who would invest now will have best of the times ahead,the ‘Panch Tattva’ number are giving support:-
TATA STEEL @496/-(CMP 22/09/06) gets 1118 pts and it is in our interest to invest in this stock immediately as the bus may be missed any time and if the next quarterly results turn out to be better than expected bus will be missed,hence the hurry.
You attention is drawn towards the following points to understand the basics of the ‘Panch Tattva teknik’ :-
a) The point level denotes that stock is weaker if it has points under ‘1000’ and is stronger if it has points over ‘1000’. At level of ‘1000’, the stock is supposed to be rightly priced. The variation against 1000 level does not denote the exact proportion in price strength.
b) The point are ascribed after careful derivation of certain ratios based on the most recent quarterly results, management strength, industry prospects, political climate, price history, interest rate scene etc. It actually takes care of every aspect affecting the price.
c) The trading strategy is given in each case and should be followed.
d) Since there are always fresh developments affecting the price, a stop loss mechanism should be followed. You may sell off half the quantity upon slide in price to the extent of 3% and sell entire quantity upon 6% fall in price. Once out of stock you should not look back at the same stock until fresh point level is given after announcement of next quarterly result.
e) Some stocks would be studied and regularly posted on this column for every body to take advantage of and you may simply track prices to have confidence in the efficacy/efficiency of the system before actually trying your hand out.
f) This system has been empirically tested for over a decade and there are people who have drawn immense benefit out of the advice based on this.
Two points given below about Trading Strategy sould also be followed.
1. KNOW WHEN TO TAKE STOCK:
Know when you would sit down to take stock of the situation for moving out of a trade, in my scheme of things the next quarterly result announcement is the day when you must ask for the new ‘Panch Tattva’ numbers.
2. THE INVESTMENT QUANTUM/SIZE:
I suggest that in this regard you should invest not more than 5% of you investible funds in each recommended stock under ‘Panch Tattva teknik’.This would keep you from worrying excessively.
Gentlemen, the taste of the pudding lies in eating, you may ask for advice in respect of stock(s) of your own choice, against an introductory moderate charge of INR 10/- per scrip up to 30 Sept 2006 and INR 20/- from 1 Oct 2006 onwards. You may contact me at my Cell 09376168780 or email me at krsnakhandelwal@yahoo.com .
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
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Saturday, September 16, 2006
Panch Tattva – Recent : RIL: 60916
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
You are welcome to have the glimpse into the stock price evaluation numbers under ‘Panch Tattva Teknik’, I am covering the most traded stock on the NSE on 15th Sept i.e. Reliance Industries Ltd this time and the advice goes as under :-
RIL @1140/- (CMP on 15.09.06) gets 940 points and is almost at the right price to be bought on declines regularly for accumulation till the next quarterly results are out when it will be reassessed and reported, till then bought quantities may be booked profit on in excess of five percent on average price of purchase.
I now give some permanent points to remember for the ones who venture out to trade on the strength of the ‘Panch Tattva Teknik’. I have based my advice on the following:-
a) The point level denotes that stock is weaker if it has points under ‘1000’ and is stronger if it has points over ‘1000’. At level of ‘1000’, the stock is supposed to be rightly priced. The variation against 1000 level does not denote the exact proportion in price strength.
b) The point are ascribed after careful derivation of certain ratios based on the most recent quarterly results , management strength, industry prospects, political climate, price history, interest rate scene etc. It actually takes care of every aspect affecting the price.
c) The trading strategy is given in each case and should be followed.
d) Since there are always fresh developments affecting the price, a stop loss mechanism should be followed. You may sell off half the quantity upon slide in price to the extent of 3% and sell entire quantity upon 6% fall in price. Once out of stock you should not look back at the same stock until fresh point level is given after announcement of next quarterly result.
e) Some stocks would be studied and regularly posted on this column for every body to take advantage of and you may simply track prices to have confidence in the efficacy/efficiency of the system before actually trying your hand out.
f) This system has been empirically tested for over a decade and there are people who have drawn immense benefit out of the advice based on this.
Gentlemen, the taste of the pudding lies in eating, you may ask for advice in respect of stock(s) of your own choice, against an introductory moderate charge of INR 10/- per scrip. You may contact me at my Cell Phone 09376168780 or email me at krsnakhandelwal@yahoo.com .
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Friday, September 15, 2006
Market Matrix – Let us examine current stock market scene – 15 September 2006
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
I have a confession to make about judging market wrongly at a time when some thing was surely brewing up. Last year in the month of September 05, Nifty at 2500 and sensex at 8500 looked to me highly priced while the relevant PE was 18. This level was exceeded with vengeance for most part after September 05. I was however not a lone soul suspecting that the markets had been moving at unnatural gait then. Our reverend prime minister had also publicly expressed his discomfiture at the pace of advances in indices then.
When we look back, we know that the level of 2500/8500 was never breached on the down side throughout the year and hence it may be said that those who had reservation about the strength of market were in the wrong. From another angle, however, we can also conclude that such observation had merit, otherwise why 8 months down the line without any apparent current reason markets did come down to almost kiss the level of 2500/8500 in May 06. The markets have since then rebounded again, now trying to cross the 3500/12000 level for nifty/sensex while the PE stands about 20 (better by 2 points).
This has confirmed that the markets have to do with optimism, hope, expectation and emotional connotations as much as they have to do with the projectable core numbers at macro and micro level. When hope belies and the optimism is found to be misplaced, no force than can stem the slide as no logic could stem the tide when the expectations were rising high. In the medium or in the long run the numbers do play a vital role in determination of the market levels.
This very character of the market makes it not fit for the ordinary souls. On this account, the encashability of assets for their value remains suspect. In light of this, please do not entirely commit your resources to equity stocks. The best means is to build up capital through continuous contribution to some kind of balanced funds where 50:50 flavours of debt and equity is available. The unit link policies of the private insurance companies are the right products in financial market place to be relied upon, as these policies are cost wise better that the MFs and offer the freedom to switch between the funds without cost. When extreme times are visible to be taken shelter under risk free funds and reversely when the never before opportunity is knocking at door for making money by transferring funds to equity related fund, ULIPs are handy instruments.
At this juncture I am ready to say that 3100/11000 level for Nifty/Sensex happens to be justified from the basic strength angle and rest is pure sentiment driven, if the next quarter numbers do not show better, the hope will turn into despair hence prudence demands that for the time being one should get out of speculative stocks. Any euphoric mania from now onwards would call for completely leaving the market.
Hari Om
BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A Vedic Prescription for stock market
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Market Matrix – Birla speaks – 14 Sep 2006
By krsna Khandelwal – A Stock Market Vedic Theory proponent
The iconic Birla, scion of the great G.D.Birla was in Ahmedabad yesterday for delivering a talk on the group’s philosophy. Integrity, commitment, passion, seamlessness and speed are the five values that form the cornerstone of the guiding ethics for the group that is now known as ‘aditya birla group’. He told, “Our values form our core ideology, provide us with a moral compass, give us our roots and provide us our wings. The key to enduring leadership lies in knowing what we stand for and in living by that”. He added, “We believe that great and lasting businesses are never built on quick sands of opportunism. For us at the ‘aditya birla group’, if living by our values means perhaps growing at a pace slower than we would have otherwise liked, so be it.” He went on to say, “It is in harmonisation of the five values that we see the prospect of greater value creation for all our stakeholders. No value takes precedence over the other because if one of them is not followed it negates the very purpose of having articulated a set of value.
I have a feeling that this group has not delivered what it could looking at the resources at command and the times since last decade. This may have been due to scarcity of hands and due to early demise of the visionary ‘Aditya Birla’ father of Kumar Manglam.The young Birla has conducted himself very well and has bought out the values from out of the closet where G.D.Birla had to keep them for some time due to the demands of times in Nehru/Indira era. Now is the time when he has to really speed up. The times that India is seeing are no ordinary times and should be utilised for the advancement at speed for the nation and the group itself. The need of the hour to give greater powers to managers out side the family and have faith in them. He has to shed the fear of loosing capital and be bolder in approach. The conservationist attitude is not the attitude befitting of the times, this is the time when the scores have to made in sixes and fours. The pitch is good, the sun is shining, the bowlers are not delivering bodyline balls, and the empire is not keeping sides, therefore, what one is waiting for. Think of new lines of business, think out of box, you are young Mr.Birla, it is my advice to him, Ratan Tata did that, he can do too. I named Ratan Tata for I also say that values keep the business house healthy at all times.
Hari Om
Panch Tattva Wisdom 